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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to DAL 39, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.58 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP