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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ATL 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model