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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to DAL 28, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 44 for 16 yards (35-N.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.06 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model