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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model