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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Turpin (20-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.41 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP