4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney to DAL 33 for 10 yards (21-C.Carson).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model