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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 17-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.50 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model