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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 15
Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 3
What Actually Happened
(9:36) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK
+1.37 EP
- 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
