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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 85

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to GB 25, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.43 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP