Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 6 – Detroit Lions 24

(12:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed to DET 36 for 28 yards (15-E.Rakestraw).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model