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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 9

Green Bay Packers 6 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to DET 9 for no gain (53-T.Nowaske; 46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +3.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.25 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model