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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 12

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 12, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP