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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model