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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 46-T.Zentner punts 37 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model