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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 39
Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0
What Actually Happened
(12:39) 9-K.Walker left end to LA 37 for 2 yards (48-O.Speights).
The Three Options
GO
+2.13 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.78 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.75 EP
KICK
+0.21 EP
- 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
+0.05 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
