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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(:30) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-46-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP