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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 82

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 46-T.Zentner punts 53 yards to SEA 29, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-D.Williams to SEA 40 for 11 yards (19-X.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.28 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP