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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 46-T.Zentner punts 44 yards to SEA 27, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.54 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model