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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at LA 14 for 29 yards (26-K.Kinchens).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP