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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 46-T.Zentner punts 25 yards to SEA 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.59 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model