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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 6 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-M.Hollins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 1, worth +0.65 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model