Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(10:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-M.Overton. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at MIA 37 for 29 yards (16-J.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model