4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 27 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.09 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model