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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 34

New England Patriots 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 13-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.23 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model