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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tennessee Titans
4th & 8 at the 51
Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 3
What Actually Happened
(1:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 36 yards to NE 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.46 EP
Model's Pick
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.22 EP
- 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.44 EP
KICK
-1.36 EP
- 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
What Happened
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
