Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 67

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 17-B.Baringer punts 60 yards to TEN 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 13 for 6 yards (27-M.Dial). FUMBLES (27-M.Dial), and recovers at TEN 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.90 EP
75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model