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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 15

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to TEN 5 for 10 yards (37-A.Hooker; 44-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.18 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.10 EP