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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 38

New England Patriots 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 13-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model