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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Tennessee Titans
4th & 11 at the 42
Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(4:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.15 EP
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.06 EP
- 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP
KICK
-0.35 EP
- 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 52% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT
+0.07 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
