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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to KC 22, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP