4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 14-M.Araiza punts 35 yards to TB 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model