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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 64-W.Morris reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 49 for 3 yards (31-A.Winfield; 50-V.Vea).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.47 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model