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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(:13) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to TB 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-31-N.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.14 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -0.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model