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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 22

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.45 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model