4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 12

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (No Huddle) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at NYG 6 for 6 yards (41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model