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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 62

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 38-M.Haack punts 32 yards to WAS 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.65 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP