Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 68

Washington Commanders 21 – New York Giants 7

(14:16) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 21 for 6 yards (35-P.Butler; 57-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model