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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 65

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 18 for 9 yards (57-N.Bellore). PENALTY on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at NYG 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model