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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 29

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 27 for 2 yards (25-B.St-Juste).

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.36 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model