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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 13

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 99-J.McAtamney 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model