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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 13

Washington Commanders 21 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:36) 3-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.36 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP