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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 30 for -4 yards (54-K.Welch; 28-S.Kane).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP