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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CIN 27, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model