Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

(13:28) 11-J.Stout punts 35 yards to CIN 33, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model