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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 17 for 1 yard (40-M.Harrison). PENALTY on CIN-28-J.Newton, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model