4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 8-R.Rehkow punts 32 yards to BAL 8, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model