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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 81-J.Burton.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.81 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model