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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Burton.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.07 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.17 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model