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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 25

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP