Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 59

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to CAR 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-D.Moore to CAR 32 for 19 yards (49-M.Adams). PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.57 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model